By A WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTER
Newly leaked diplomatic cables provide a rare look inside the complex relationship between China and Myanmar in recent years, suggesting that Beijing at times lost patience with the country's secretive military regime as it failed to pursue economic and political reforms.
In one of the cables published by the WikiLeaks website, a senior Chinese official meeting with a top U.S. diplomat in 2008 indicated that Beijing was "fed up" with Myanmar's junta for "footdragging" on reforms. Another 2008 cable posted by WikiLeaks described a meeting in which a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told the U.S. that Beijing wanted Myanmar to take "bold measures" to boost the livelihoods of its residents and promote more dialogue with pro-democracy dissidents—both long-time goals of U.S. foreign policy in the country.
The cables run counter to a view held by some Myanmar exiles and dissidents that China and Myanmar are on the same page in opposition to the U.S. and other Western governments, which have imposed tough sanctions on Myanmar's junta following years of reports of human-rights and other abuses.
Separately, Joseph Y. Yun, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, discussed the sanctions with Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi Friday at her lakeside home in Yangon, the Associated Press reported. Mr. Yun said the meeting was "very productive.'' Ms. Suu Kyi has indicated she is reviewing the effectiveness of the sanctions, and if she decides to oppose some, it could encourage U.S. officials to lift them, analysts say.
Beijing has dramatically expanded its business ties with Myanmar over the past decade, with massive investments in natural gas, mining and hydroelectric power. It has also repeatedly defended Myanmar, which is also known as Burma, against criticism at the United Nations Security Council and elsewhere on the basis that Western leaders shouldn't interfere with the country's internal political affairs. Dissidents and other critics say China is defending Myanmar to protect its investments in the country.
Either way, a growing number of analysts say China wants to see at least some modest political change in Myanmar, if only to ease tensions that could cause unrest in the country and lead to instability along its border with China or jeopardize Chinese investments there. Relations are also believed to be strained at times by rising resentment among Myanmar residents who don't like so much Chinese investment, since it tends to bolster the military regime, which has ruled Myanmar since 1962.
Although Chinese leaders likely don't want to see major regime change in Myanmar, they do "want the Burmese regime to become more PR-savvy, and that can't be done without some more substantive progress on the ground" in terms of economic and political reforms, says Maung Zarni, a Myanmar research fellow at the London School of Economics.
It wasn't immediately possible to reach the U.S. and Chinese embassies in Myanmar for comment on the latest cables. Nor was it clear whether the reports represented any concerted effort by China to influence Myanmar policy, or mainly wishful thinking on the part of American officials eager to promote change in the country. China's foreign ministry has repeatedly said it will not comment on the content of diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.
Attempts to reach the Myanmar government, which rarely speaks to foreign journalists, were unsuccessful.
The cables follow similar revelations in earlier diplomatic leaks suggesting that China at times may take a dimmer view of some of its allies, especially North Korea, than is widely known. China's public posture toward such countries rarely includes direct criticism.
Whatever China's motives toward Myanmar, U.S. officials have grown increasingly worried about the outwardly warm relationship between the two countries, which Washington believes undermines Western efforts to isolate a Myanmar junta that is accused of widespread human-rights abuses and decades of economic and social neglect.
China's public support for Myanmar has continued recently, including after its regime held a national election—Myanmar's first since 1990—in November that was widely derided by Western observers and opposition groups within Myanmar as a sham. China endorsed the vote, which junta-backed candidates won overwhelmingly, despite reports of polling irregularities.
It is also widely assumed that China will try to block efforts led by the U.S. and other countries to create an international commission investigating alleged human-rights violations in Myanmar.
In one of the latest cables, U.S. officials described a lunch meeting between the former head of the U.S. Embassy in Yangon, Shari Villarosa, and former Chinese Ambassador Guan Mu, who acknowledged that Myanmar's regime "has done nothing to improve the lives" of the people there, the cable said. The Chinese ambassador went on to say that Chinese officials had repeatedly pressed Myanmar officials to "speed up the political dialogue and warned them that the international community would not accept any backtracking," the cable said.
"The Chinese clearly are fed up with the footdragging" by Myanmar's regime, the cable concluded. "The Chinese can no longer rely on the generals to protect their interests here, and recognize the need to broker some solution that keeps the peace, including bringing in the pro-democracy supporters." Efforts to reach Mr. Guan, who now serves in Thailand, were unsuccessful.
The cable indicated that Chinese officials thought Myanmar leaders would become more willing to loosen their grip over time, especially if they were given assurances they wouldn't be stripped of their economic interests and power, or otherwise severely punished, for any alleged abuses.
In the other cable, detailing a meeting with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, counselor Yang Jian reportedly told the Americans that China remains opposed to additional sanctions against Myanmar, even though analysts have generally agreed Western sanctions have made it easier for Chinese companies to make inroads there. Sanctions have only made Myanmar officials look further inward, making it harder to pursue reforms, the Chinese official reportedly said.
The cable said that Chinese officials were encouraging more direct talks between the U.S. and Myanmar. The Obama administration later said it would indeed seek to expand its dialogue with the regime, but the effort failed to produce any major diplomatic breakthroughs.
The latest batch of WikiLeaks disclosures included other Myanmar cables that showed U.S. officials grasping, as early as 2004, for reliable information on Myanmar's alleged military links with North Korea, as well as its widely reported but unproven efforts to develop a nuclear-weapons program, which Myanmar has denied.
Concerns about the country's potential nuclear research intensified earlier this year when exile news organizations published photos and other documents from a Myanmar military defector. U.S. officials have also tracked alleged arms shipments from North Korea to Myanmar.
In one cable, from January 2004, an expatriate businessman reported rumors of a nuclear reactor being built near a Myanmar river. In another cable, from August that year, an unnamed source told American officials that some 300 North Koreans were working on a "secret construction site" in central Myanmar that possibly included the assembly of missiles and a concrete-reinforced underground facility.
Although U.S. officials expressed skepticism over the number of North Korean workers, photos smuggled out of the country several years later appeared to confirm the construction of a network of underground bunkers in the vicinity of Myanmar's new national capital, Naypyitaw, also in central Myanmar.
In another cable, from November 2009, American officials discussed an unnamed source who initially said Myanmar and North Korea were engaged in "peaceful nuclear cooperation" but later changed the story, saying there had been a "misunderstanding." The source said that links between North Korea and Myanmar were merely "exploratory" and that steps by the U.S., including efforts to trail a North Korean cargo ship believed headed for Myanmar in 2009, had spooked Myanmar officials enough to "put everything on hold." The ship eventually turned around to head back to North Korea.
Although the report left many questions, "something is certainly happening; whether that something includes 'nukes' is a very open question which remains a very high priority for Embassy reporting," the cable said.
Source:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704457604576010751775256360.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Newly leaked diplomatic cables provide a rare look inside the complex relationship between China and Myanmar in recent years, suggesting that Beijing at times lost patience with the country's secretive military regime as it failed to pursue economic and political reforms.
In one of the cables published by the WikiLeaks website, a senior Chinese official meeting with a top U.S. diplomat in 2008 indicated that Beijing was "fed up" with Myanmar's junta for "footdragging" on reforms. Another 2008 cable posted by WikiLeaks described a meeting in which a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told the U.S. that Beijing wanted Myanmar to take "bold measures" to boost the livelihoods of its residents and promote more dialogue with pro-democracy dissidents—both long-time goals of U.S. foreign policy in the country.
The cables run counter to a view held by some Myanmar exiles and dissidents that China and Myanmar are on the same page in opposition to the U.S. and other Western governments, which have imposed tough sanctions on Myanmar's junta following years of reports of human-rights and other abuses.
Separately, Joseph Y. Yun, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, discussed the sanctions with Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi Friday at her lakeside home in Yangon, the Associated Press reported. Mr. Yun said the meeting was "very productive.'' Ms. Suu Kyi has indicated she is reviewing the effectiveness of the sanctions, and if she decides to oppose some, it could encourage U.S. officials to lift them, analysts say.
Beijing has dramatically expanded its business ties with Myanmar over the past decade, with massive investments in natural gas, mining and hydroelectric power. It has also repeatedly defended Myanmar, which is also known as Burma, against criticism at the United Nations Security Council and elsewhere on the basis that Western leaders shouldn't interfere with the country's internal political affairs. Dissidents and other critics say China is defending Myanmar to protect its investments in the country.
Either way, a growing number of analysts say China wants to see at least some modest political change in Myanmar, if only to ease tensions that could cause unrest in the country and lead to instability along its border with China or jeopardize Chinese investments there. Relations are also believed to be strained at times by rising resentment among Myanmar residents who don't like so much Chinese investment, since it tends to bolster the military regime, which has ruled Myanmar since 1962.
Although Chinese leaders likely don't want to see major regime change in Myanmar, they do "want the Burmese regime to become more PR-savvy, and that can't be done without some more substantive progress on the ground" in terms of economic and political reforms, says Maung Zarni, a Myanmar research fellow at the London School of Economics.
It wasn't immediately possible to reach the U.S. and Chinese embassies in Myanmar for comment on the latest cables. Nor was it clear whether the reports represented any concerted effort by China to influence Myanmar policy, or mainly wishful thinking on the part of American officials eager to promote change in the country. China's foreign ministry has repeatedly said it will not comment on the content of diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.
Attempts to reach the Myanmar government, which rarely speaks to foreign journalists, were unsuccessful.
The cables follow similar revelations in earlier diplomatic leaks suggesting that China at times may take a dimmer view of some of its allies, especially North Korea, than is widely known. China's public posture toward such countries rarely includes direct criticism.
Whatever China's motives toward Myanmar, U.S. officials have grown increasingly worried about the outwardly warm relationship between the two countries, which Washington believes undermines Western efforts to isolate a Myanmar junta that is accused of widespread human-rights abuses and decades of economic and social neglect.
China's public support for Myanmar has continued recently, including after its regime held a national election—Myanmar's first since 1990—in November that was widely derided by Western observers and opposition groups within Myanmar as a sham. China endorsed the vote, which junta-backed candidates won overwhelmingly, despite reports of polling irregularities.
It is also widely assumed that China will try to block efforts led by the U.S. and other countries to create an international commission investigating alleged human-rights violations in Myanmar.
In one of the latest cables, U.S. officials described a lunch meeting between the former head of the U.S. Embassy in Yangon, Shari Villarosa, and former Chinese Ambassador Guan Mu, who acknowledged that Myanmar's regime "has done nothing to improve the lives" of the people there, the cable said. The Chinese ambassador went on to say that Chinese officials had repeatedly pressed Myanmar officials to "speed up the political dialogue and warned them that the international community would not accept any backtracking," the cable said.
"The Chinese clearly are fed up with the footdragging" by Myanmar's regime, the cable concluded. "The Chinese can no longer rely on the generals to protect their interests here, and recognize the need to broker some solution that keeps the peace, including bringing in the pro-democracy supporters." Efforts to reach Mr. Guan, who now serves in Thailand, were unsuccessful.
The cable indicated that Chinese officials thought Myanmar leaders would become more willing to loosen their grip over time, especially if they were given assurances they wouldn't be stripped of their economic interests and power, or otherwise severely punished, for any alleged abuses.
In the other cable, detailing a meeting with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, counselor Yang Jian reportedly told the Americans that China remains opposed to additional sanctions against Myanmar, even though analysts have generally agreed Western sanctions have made it easier for Chinese companies to make inroads there. Sanctions have only made Myanmar officials look further inward, making it harder to pursue reforms, the Chinese official reportedly said.
The cable said that Chinese officials were encouraging more direct talks between the U.S. and Myanmar. The Obama administration later said it would indeed seek to expand its dialogue with the regime, but the effort failed to produce any major diplomatic breakthroughs.
The latest batch of WikiLeaks disclosures included other Myanmar cables that showed U.S. officials grasping, as early as 2004, for reliable information on Myanmar's alleged military links with North Korea, as well as its widely reported but unproven efforts to develop a nuclear-weapons program, which Myanmar has denied.
Concerns about the country's potential nuclear research intensified earlier this year when exile news organizations published photos and other documents from a Myanmar military defector. U.S. officials have also tracked alleged arms shipments from North Korea to Myanmar.
In one cable, from January 2004, an expatriate businessman reported rumors of a nuclear reactor being built near a Myanmar river. In another cable, from August that year, an unnamed source told American officials that some 300 North Koreans were working on a "secret construction site" in central Myanmar that possibly included the assembly of missiles and a concrete-reinforced underground facility.
Although U.S. officials expressed skepticism over the number of North Korean workers, photos smuggled out of the country several years later appeared to confirm the construction of a network of underground bunkers in the vicinity of Myanmar's new national capital, Naypyitaw, also in central Myanmar.
In another cable, from November 2009, American officials discussed an unnamed source who initially said Myanmar and North Korea were engaged in "peaceful nuclear cooperation" but later changed the story, saying there had been a "misunderstanding." The source said that links between North Korea and Myanmar were merely "exploratory" and that steps by the U.S., including efforts to trail a North Korean cargo ship believed headed for Myanmar in 2009, had spooked Myanmar officials enough to "put everything on hold." The ship eventually turned around to head back to North Korea.
Although the report left many questions, "something is certainly happening; whether that something includes 'nukes' is a very open question which remains a very high priority for Embassy reporting," the cable said.
Source:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704457604576010751775256360.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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