By Martin Petty
BANGKOK | Mon Nov 15, 2010 4:35am EST
BANGKOK (Reuters) - The release of Myanmar's Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has given a powerful voice to the country's pro-democracy camp but her role in the future of the military-ruled country remains uncertain.
Since neither Suu Kyi nor her National League for Democracy (NLD) party ran in the much-maligned November 7 parliamentary election, which was won convincingly by a pro-military party, their capacity to bring about any change to the authoritarian status quo is limited, despite their huge popularity.
WILL SUU KYI PLAY A POLITICAL ROLE?
Suu Kyi admitted on Sunday her latest seven-year stint of incarceration had left her out of touch. She said she had no concrete plans and wanted to hear views from the people before making any decision on her future.
Judging by her strong comments at her first major speech on Sunday, it is unlikely she will fade away. She talked of free speech, unity, the political empowerment of all people and of not giving up hope of positive change.
But Suu Kyi is burdened by huge expectations. Despite her international backing and massive show of support for her, the reality is there is very little she can do to challenge the military's monopoly on politics, the economy and judiciary.
She has no official role in its new political system, which will see a new government formed in the next 90 days. She might seek to carve out a niche as an influential stateswoman championing more democratic rights or pursue a diplomatic role and work to try to bring about reforms.
WILL SHE SEEK TO REBUILD HER PARTY?
Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party was disbanded by the regime in September because it boycotted the election: it is now viewed as an "unlawful association" by the government. However, the NLD insists its dissolution was unconstitutional and its members are behaving as if it is still a functioning party.
Some suggest the NLD will work like a social organization or advocacy group, perhaps strengthening its ranks to contest the next election in 2015. It might seek to work together with other pro-democracy groups that ran in the November 7 poll and won a small number of parliament seats.
However, the NLD would be taking a risk. The military junta could easily crack down on the party's activities, arrest its members and put Suu Kyi back in detention.
HOW MUCH FREEDOM WILL THE JUNTA GIVE SUU KYI?
Few people know anything of the inner workings of the aging and ultra-secretive junta. Based on past actions, they may try to prevent Suu Kyi from strengthening her stature and popularity. By politicizing the Burmese people and giving them hope, she's on a collision course with the paranoid junta. The public has shown far more enthusiasm for Suu Kyi than they have the election.
Her re-arrest -- as has happened twice before -- for dubious legal reasons cannot be ruled out and her safety will always be a concern to supporters. Previously, Suu Kyi has provoked the military with strong speeches and riled them by touring the country to court support. That was a step too far for the generals, who confined her to her house.
WHY DID THEY FREE HER WHEN HER SENTENCE EXPIRED?
Some commentators suggest the generals might be trying to gain some international legitimacy after flawed polls but it is unclear if the junta cares much about its image.
However, the "pardon" they gave Suu Kyi and their uncharacteristic offer of help with "anything she needs" might mean they are ready to tolerate her, providing she behaves and doesn't seek to challenge a new political system the generals have carefully crafted to entrench their power.
Suu Kyi refrained from attacking the junta or their election on Sunday, which could indicate a more conciliatory approach. Aware of the limits of her power, she might try to cooperate with the regime and seek small improvements to the lives of the Burmese people without going head-on with the generals.
WHAT ABOUT SANCTIONS?
Her release will almost certainly put Western sanctions back in the spotlight. Suu Kyi initially called for the embargoes but seems to have softened her stance, perhaps realizing that they might be hurting the people rather than the regime.
She might act as an unofficial mediator toward having sanctions lifted, or relaxed at least, and this is her only real bargaining chip with the generals. There is speculation the junta released Suu Kyi in the hope she will pursue this route, possibly to have arms embargoes lifted to strengthen its army.
But this assumes the junta wants to engage the West, which it may not given support from China and other Asian allies.
(Editing by Jason Szep)
Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AE17220101115
BANGKOK | Mon Nov 15, 2010 4:35am EST
BANGKOK (Reuters) - The release of Myanmar's Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has given a powerful voice to the country's pro-democracy camp but her role in the future of the military-ruled country remains uncertain.
Since neither Suu Kyi nor her National League for Democracy (NLD) party ran in the much-maligned November 7 parliamentary election, which was won convincingly by a pro-military party, their capacity to bring about any change to the authoritarian status quo is limited, despite their huge popularity.
WILL SUU KYI PLAY A POLITICAL ROLE?
Suu Kyi admitted on Sunday her latest seven-year stint of incarceration had left her out of touch. She said she had no concrete plans and wanted to hear views from the people before making any decision on her future.
Judging by her strong comments at her first major speech on Sunday, it is unlikely she will fade away. She talked of free speech, unity, the political empowerment of all people and of not giving up hope of positive change.
But Suu Kyi is burdened by huge expectations. Despite her international backing and massive show of support for her, the reality is there is very little she can do to challenge the military's monopoly on politics, the economy and judiciary.
She has no official role in its new political system, which will see a new government formed in the next 90 days. She might seek to carve out a niche as an influential stateswoman championing more democratic rights or pursue a diplomatic role and work to try to bring about reforms.
WILL SHE SEEK TO REBUILD HER PARTY?
Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party was disbanded by the regime in September because it boycotted the election: it is now viewed as an "unlawful association" by the government. However, the NLD insists its dissolution was unconstitutional and its members are behaving as if it is still a functioning party.
Some suggest the NLD will work like a social organization or advocacy group, perhaps strengthening its ranks to contest the next election in 2015. It might seek to work together with other pro-democracy groups that ran in the November 7 poll and won a small number of parliament seats.
However, the NLD would be taking a risk. The military junta could easily crack down on the party's activities, arrest its members and put Suu Kyi back in detention.
HOW MUCH FREEDOM WILL THE JUNTA GIVE SUU KYI?
Few people know anything of the inner workings of the aging and ultra-secretive junta. Based on past actions, they may try to prevent Suu Kyi from strengthening her stature and popularity. By politicizing the Burmese people and giving them hope, she's on a collision course with the paranoid junta. The public has shown far more enthusiasm for Suu Kyi than they have the election.
Her re-arrest -- as has happened twice before -- for dubious legal reasons cannot be ruled out and her safety will always be a concern to supporters. Previously, Suu Kyi has provoked the military with strong speeches and riled them by touring the country to court support. That was a step too far for the generals, who confined her to her house.
WHY DID THEY FREE HER WHEN HER SENTENCE EXPIRED?
Some commentators suggest the generals might be trying to gain some international legitimacy after flawed polls but it is unclear if the junta cares much about its image.
However, the "pardon" they gave Suu Kyi and their uncharacteristic offer of help with "anything she needs" might mean they are ready to tolerate her, providing she behaves and doesn't seek to challenge a new political system the generals have carefully crafted to entrench their power.
Suu Kyi refrained from attacking the junta or their election on Sunday, which could indicate a more conciliatory approach. Aware of the limits of her power, she might try to cooperate with the regime and seek small improvements to the lives of the Burmese people without going head-on with the generals.
WHAT ABOUT SANCTIONS?
Her release will almost certainly put Western sanctions back in the spotlight. Suu Kyi initially called for the embargoes but seems to have softened her stance, perhaps realizing that they might be hurting the people rather than the regime.
She might act as an unofficial mediator toward having sanctions lifted, or relaxed at least, and this is her only real bargaining chip with the generals. There is speculation the junta released Suu Kyi in the hope she will pursue this route, possibly to have arms embargoes lifted to strengthen its army.
But this assumes the junta wants to engage the West, which it may not given support from China and other Asian allies.
(Editing by Jason Szep)
Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AE17220101115
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