By a WSJ Staff Reporter
YANGON—Voters gearing up for Myanmar's first election in 20 years on Sunday are increasingly focused on one central question: Whether a handful of weak—and deeply divided—opposition groups will emerge with at least a sizable stake in the country's new government.
Residents and analysts widely expect Myanmar's harsh military regime, led by its Union Solidarity and Development Party, to dominate the polls, winning most of the seats in a new parliament to be formed by early next year. The country's main opposition group, the National League for Democracy led by famed Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, was disbanded by the government earlier this year and is pushing for a boycott.
But a handful of other opposition groups, including the National Democratic Force, a splinter group of Ms. Suu Kyi's NLD, are fielding more than 350 candidates across the country for the roughly 1,150 seats in contention. Some residents believe the groups–some of which have called for limited collaboration with the military–could win a large percentage of their races, securing sizable blocs in the two houses that will make up Myanmar's new parliament. They could also fare well in several regional assemblies being set up to help oversee local affairs.
Another wild card is a group known as the National Unity Party, which is led by former military leaders but nevertheless is running separately from the government's USDP party. Analysts and residents widely view the party as pro-government but note that it may not agree with the regime in all areas of governance. A strong showing by the NUP instead of the USDP could signal further dissatisfaction with the ruling regime and force USDP leaders to negotiate some form of power-sharing deal to build a coalition in the new parliament.
It isn't yet clear how much influence these disparate opposition groups would have if they perform well at the polls. Although the new parliament is expected to play a central role in choosing Myanmar's new president, among other tasks, ambiguities in the country's constitution make it difficult to determine precisely how much authority the new parliament will have. Most analysts believe it will still be dominated by members of the country's current military regime, which is fielding more than 1,000 candidates for the vote.
But a series of victories for opposition figures would nevertheless serve as an important symbolic rebuke to the government, many residents believe. It could also help plant the seeds for further opposition in the years ahead, emboldening activists who previously were afraid to speak against the regime to join with elected opposition groups or form parties of their own.
"I believe the opposition parties will win a fair share of the seats," said one 40-year-old lawyer speaking in a Yangon tea shop this week. Although they won't control the government, "they can at least make their voice heard," and that will be progress, he said.
Myanmar's military regime has ruled the country since 1962 and is accused of widespread human-rights violations and neglect of its people, with per-capita incomes among the lowest in Asia. The regime is ostracized by much of the Western world, though many Asian countries, including China, Thailand and India, are vying for access there, especially to invest in natural-resources projects.
Analysts believe the government is holding the vote in part to boost its legitimacy in the eyes of the outside world. But some 25% of the new parliament's seats will be reserved for the military, and opposition leaders say the government limited their opportunities for success by charging hefty candidate registration fees that made it hard to put up candidates in some areas, among other hurdles.
The government also has said it will block as many as 1.5 million or more residents from voting in areas controlled by some of Myanmar's restive ethnic minorities, because of concerns it won't be able to assure a fair vote in the areas.
Some residents this week said they are afraid to cast ballots for opposition groups given the country's record of imprisoning more than 2,000 political opponents, according to human rights groups.
Many have also said they don't trust the regime to accurately count the ballots, since it has refused to allow international vote monitors. Other residents are less skeptical, arguing that since the government already has numerous advantages - including more candidates and deeper funding - it won't feel a need to manipulate the result.
Attempts to reach the Myanmar government - which rarely speaks to foreign journalists - in recent weeks were not successful. Officials have said in the past the vote will be free and fair. In a commentary published in the government mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar this week, authorities said that anyone accusing the government of "making preparations to rig the election" must be "the sort of person wishing to deceive the people."
The paper also warned residents to "ignore the instigation of destructive elements" calling for a boycott. If the election is "aborted," it said, "the ruling government will have no choice but to keep taking State responsibilities till it holds another election," it said. The paper has also included paeans to democracy including cartoons of happy voters and a poem entitled, "A ballot so valuable" that calls on "adored brethren" and "Children of the Union" to "not miss (the) opportunity to vote."
It is unknown when the final results will be made public, though residents and diplomats said they expect them to be released either the day of the vote or soon afterwards.
Government-backed candidates certainly have the upper hand in the contest. The pro-government USDP has an estimated 16 to 18 million members, inherited mainly from pre-existing pro-junta groups, in a country of 29 million eligible voters.
Another problem for opposition groups is that many residents don't know the candidates, especially in rural areas, where information about the vote is often scant. Many of the best-known civic leaders and business people have aligned with the government's party.
In addition, while a number of small opposition parties have made tentative plans to form a voting bloc in parliament to boost their influence if elected, some have already fallen out over tactics and other disagreements.
Still, voters and opposition leaders have surprised the regime and outside analysts before. In the last election in 1990, it was widely assumed that pro-government parties would easily dominate, but voters overwhelmingly chose Ms. Suu Kyi's party. The regime decided to ignore the result and imprisoned many of the NLD's top leaders, and it still keeps Ms. Suu Kyi under house arrest.
Source : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704405704575596144292683232.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
YANGON—Voters gearing up for Myanmar's first election in 20 years on Sunday are increasingly focused on one central question: Whether a handful of weak—and deeply divided—opposition groups will emerge with at least a sizable stake in the country's new government.
Residents and analysts widely expect Myanmar's harsh military regime, led by its Union Solidarity and Development Party, to dominate the polls, winning most of the seats in a new parliament to be formed by early next year. The country's main opposition group, the National League for Democracy led by famed Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, was disbanded by the government earlier this year and is pushing for a boycott.
But a handful of other opposition groups, including the National Democratic Force, a splinter group of Ms. Suu Kyi's NLD, are fielding more than 350 candidates across the country for the roughly 1,150 seats in contention. Some residents believe the groups–some of which have called for limited collaboration with the military–could win a large percentage of their races, securing sizable blocs in the two houses that will make up Myanmar's new parliament. They could also fare well in several regional assemblies being set up to help oversee local affairs.
Another wild card is a group known as the National Unity Party, which is led by former military leaders but nevertheless is running separately from the government's USDP party. Analysts and residents widely view the party as pro-government but note that it may not agree with the regime in all areas of governance. A strong showing by the NUP instead of the USDP could signal further dissatisfaction with the ruling regime and force USDP leaders to negotiate some form of power-sharing deal to build a coalition in the new parliament.
It isn't yet clear how much influence these disparate opposition groups would have if they perform well at the polls. Although the new parliament is expected to play a central role in choosing Myanmar's new president, among other tasks, ambiguities in the country's constitution make it difficult to determine precisely how much authority the new parliament will have. Most analysts believe it will still be dominated by members of the country's current military regime, which is fielding more than 1,000 candidates for the vote.
But a series of victories for opposition figures would nevertheless serve as an important symbolic rebuke to the government, many residents believe. It could also help plant the seeds for further opposition in the years ahead, emboldening activists who previously were afraid to speak against the regime to join with elected opposition groups or form parties of their own.
"I believe the opposition parties will win a fair share of the seats," said one 40-year-old lawyer speaking in a Yangon tea shop this week. Although they won't control the government, "they can at least make their voice heard," and that will be progress, he said.
Myanmar's military regime has ruled the country since 1962 and is accused of widespread human-rights violations and neglect of its people, with per-capita incomes among the lowest in Asia. The regime is ostracized by much of the Western world, though many Asian countries, including China, Thailand and India, are vying for access there, especially to invest in natural-resources projects.
Analysts believe the government is holding the vote in part to boost its legitimacy in the eyes of the outside world. But some 25% of the new parliament's seats will be reserved for the military, and opposition leaders say the government limited their opportunities for success by charging hefty candidate registration fees that made it hard to put up candidates in some areas, among other hurdles.
The government also has said it will block as many as 1.5 million or more residents from voting in areas controlled by some of Myanmar's restive ethnic minorities, because of concerns it won't be able to assure a fair vote in the areas.
Some residents this week said they are afraid to cast ballots for opposition groups given the country's record of imprisoning more than 2,000 political opponents, according to human rights groups.
Many have also said they don't trust the regime to accurately count the ballots, since it has refused to allow international vote monitors. Other residents are less skeptical, arguing that since the government already has numerous advantages - including more candidates and deeper funding - it won't feel a need to manipulate the result.
Attempts to reach the Myanmar government - which rarely speaks to foreign journalists - in recent weeks were not successful. Officials have said in the past the vote will be free and fair. In a commentary published in the government mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar this week, authorities said that anyone accusing the government of "making preparations to rig the election" must be "the sort of person wishing to deceive the people."
The paper also warned residents to "ignore the instigation of destructive elements" calling for a boycott. If the election is "aborted," it said, "the ruling government will have no choice but to keep taking State responsibilities till it holds another election," it said. The paper has also included paeans to democracy including cartoons of happy voters and a poem entitled, "A ballot so valuable" that calls on "adored brethren" and "Children of the Union" to "not miss (the) opportunity to vote."
It is unknown when the final results will be made public, though residents and diplomats said they expect them to be released either the day of the vote or soon afterwards.
Government-backed candidates certainly have the upper hand in the contest. The pro-government USDP has an estimated 16 to 18 million members, inherited mainly from pre-existing pro-junta groups, in a country of 29 million eligible voters.
Another problem for opposition groups is that many residents don't know the candidates, especially in rural areas, where information about the vote is often scant. Many of the best-known civic leaders and business people have aligned with the government's party.
In addition, while a number of small opposition parties have made tentative plans to form a voting bloc in parliament to boost their influence if elected, some have already fallen out over tactics and other disagreements.
Still, voters and opposition leaders have surprised the regime and outside analysts before. In the last election in 1990, it was widely assumed that pro-government parties would easily dominate, but voters overwhelmingly chose Ms. Suu Kyi's party. The regime decided to ignore the result and imprisoned many of the NLD's top leaders, and it still keeps Ms. Suu Kyi under house arrest.
Source : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704405704575596144292683232.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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