Now that the election date has been fixed, national and regional constituencies declared and a deadline set for the submission of candidate lists, Burma's political parties are busy selecting and preparing their candidates.
The parties—whether pro-junta or pro-democracy, Burman or ethnic, nationwide or local, existing or new—need well thought-out, carefully calculated and pragmatic strategies for fielding candidates and campaigning. With good strategies to position candidates and allocate resources, the political parties will be able to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses.
In elections in democratic countries, political parties write comprehensive campaign plans ahead of the elections with a clear purpose and separate components mostly covering the development of messages, recruiting volunteers and identifying directors, developing media strategies, canvassing and rally programs and, most importantly, fund raising.
But in the case of Burma, political parties are like ships sailing in uncharted waters without even compasses to guide them. By the time they discovered when the election would be held it was too late for them to develop comprehensive strategies.
In 1990, political parties had sufficient time to build up their structures and platforms, and develop campaign plans and strategies. Electoral laws for the 1990 elections were issued on May 31, 1989, giving parties a full year's notice. The election date was announced in November 1989, six months ahead of the election.
This time around, only three months' notice was given of the November 7 election date.
For the 1990 election, political parties were allowed to form from Sept. 1988. This time, parties have only four months in which to register and recruit members. No sooner had they finished the recruitment process than they had to choose candidates.
With the well-planned strategies of the military backed Union Solidarity and Development Party in mind as they approach this year's election, other parties should work meticulously on a strategy for positioning candidates in order to compete with any hope of success.
Political parties that decide to contest constituencies nationwide have the USDP as their main rival. The USDP's rival parties, including the National Unity Party, which was favored by the military in 1990, are unable to field candidates for all seats at national, States and Division level.
Nationwide parties are mostly non-ethnic parties which intend to focus on Divisions (Regions) where most Burmans are living. At the national level, there are two parliaments: the People’s Parliament (Pyithu Hluttaw) and the Nationalities Parliament (Amyotha Hluttaw).
The focus of these nationwide parties should be on the People’s Parliament (Lower House) constituencies in seven Divisions (Regions) where there are 207 seats rather than only 84 seats of the Regions’ Nationalities Parliament (Upper House).
Out of 207 constituencies, they need to field candidates in ones where they are most likely to win. Even in these constituencies, they should avoid some areas contested by current ministers or former high ranking military officers and where the chances of winning are nil.
Another strategy is to choose constituencies where there are good communications and transportation. Government-backed thugs can manipulate the poll results more easily in rural constituencies than in areas where good communications would make vote-rigging obvious.
Ethnic political parties should focus on areas with large ethnic populations. Some ethnic political parties previously chose to contest in constituencies outside their own States. Focusing on more consolidated areas where constituencies are adjacent will be more practical in terms of logistics and targeted campaigns.
If political parties want to choose less aggressive areas, seats for Regional Parliaments are safer. There is a total of 660 seats plus 29 seats for smaller ethnic groups in respective areas. Every township will have two seats in the Regional Parliament. Political parties contesting nationwide will have more chance in 414 seats for the Regional Parliaments. In these Parliaments, however, they will have less business to attend to than in national Parliaments.
The same applies for ethnic parties. There are more seats to be won in the State Parliament and the chances of election success are greater. But contesting the 29 seats for minority ethnic groups, where they will have their own candidates to dominate their own areas, is to be avoided.
If possible, political parties should build up an electoral alliance to face the challenges posed by the USDP. They should even cooperate in fielding candidates in different areas to reduce the number of uncontested constituencies where USDP candidates are assured of victory.
Although it seems too late for political parties to draw up a comprehensive plan for the whole election process, some opportunities might exist to develop pragmatic strategies for the election campaign. The most pragmatic of these would be to complain to the Union Election Commission about every campaign abuse by the USDP, regardless whether or not the commission takes action.
All political parties already know the election will not be free and fair and that it's a game of winner takes all. For the losers, the complaints mechanism will be a tool they can use to expose just how unfair the election was.
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