A former CIA-trained Burmese intelligence officer suggests that Burmese junta supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe will only release pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and some political prisoners as a last tactic before the election if he faces strong international pressure.
“If the US and other countries exert strong pressure, he [Than Shwe] may change in mind and release some political prisoners,” wrote Maj Aung Lynn Htut, a former Charge d’Affairs at the Burmese embassy in Washington D.C, in his recent analysis, the “The 1990 Election to 2010 Election in Burma.”
“He often told us [military officials] that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is the last card he can play in Burmese politics,” he said, adding that if the international community fails to exert more pressure, Than Shwe will hold the election without Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD).
He said Than Shwe is worried about calls by democracy activists for him to be tried by the International Criminal Court and reportedly consulted his attorney general on the matter.
Before Aung Lynn Htut came to Washington in 2000 as the second highest-ranking Burmese diplomat in the US, he was a senior officer at the counter-intelligence department of the Directorate of Defense Service Intelligence then headed by Gen Khin Nyunt, who was ousted and arrested in October 2004.
He completed a three-month training program with the CIA in Washington after he graduated from the elite Defense Service Academy in Pyin U Lwin in 1987.
As a counter-intelligence officer, Aung Lynn Htut accompanied his boss, Khin Nyunt, to top meetings of Burmese generals, and he has maintained contacts with both active and retired officers in Burma's military.
Since Suu Kyi began her involvement in Burma’s democracy movement in 1988, she has been arrested three times by Than Shwe's regime.
After being detained since her first arrest in July 1989, the junta freed Suu Kyi on July 10, 1995, announcing that, “The order to restrict Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to her compound has been revoked as of today.”
Her release came as a surprise since a few days previously Khin Nyunt had said she would not be released because “the rights of 45 million are more important than the rights of an individual.”
Observers said the order for Suu Kyi’s release in 1995 directly came from Than Shwe, three years after he took the office over from his predecessor Gen Saw Maung.
Suu Kyi was arrested a second time in September 2000 and detained for 19 months until her release in May 2002. On that occasion, Suu Kyi said: “"It's a new dawn for the country. We only hope the dawn will move very quickly.”
At the time, the junta said it firmly believed in letting all citizens take part in the political process. Statements by the junta and Suu Kyi suggested her release was a result of secret talks between the two sides during her detention.
Arrested a third time in May 2003 and kept in detention ever since, Suu Kyi is scheduled to be released when the most recent 18-month extension of her house arrest ends in November.
However, politicians inside Burma are pessimistic about her chances as long as the junta has not held its planned election.
“People are talking about a December election, and if Suu Kyi is not released, then she may be facing an extension of her sentence to three years,” said Khin Maung Swe, a leader of the National Democratic Force, a splinter group of Suu Kyi’s NLD.
“The reduction in her sentence to 18 months was on condition that 'she behaves well',” said Khin Maung Swe.
Meanwhile, Aung Lynn Htut added in his analysis that Than Shwe ordered Burmese diplomats and intelligence agencies to conduct psychological warfare against Suu Kyi and the opposition.
This included spreading disinformation about Suu Kyi in the international community through Burmese diplomats and “popular and educated persons” at home and abroad.
According to Aung Lynn Htut, it was Than Shwe who spread the idea that Suu Kyi was not willing to negotiate with the military.
“This is quite believable,” said Aye Thar Aung, an Arakanese leader and the secretary of the Committee Representing People’s Parliament, an umbrella group of the opposition and ethnic parties.
“For example, we have recently witnessed people like the so-called 'Third Force' in Burmese politics telling diplomats and foreign NGO's that opponents of Than Shwe's election plans are hardliners,” he said.
“Those people say they are neither with the junta nor the opposition. But in fact their backgrounds show they come from the military elite,” he said.
Comments
Post a Comment