RUILI, China — Burma’s ruling junta is deploying a force of about 70,000 troops in Shan State to confront more than 30,000 troops of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) if hostilities break out over the regime's Border Guard Force (BGF) plan, according to sources close to military officials in the Burmese border town of Muse.Burmese armed forces march at Naypyidaw on March 27, 2007. (Photo: Nic Dunlop/Panos)
The regime set a Feb. 28 deadline for ceasefire groups, including the UWSA, to agree to turn their armed forces into a Border Guard Force. The plan has run into wide resistance.
The Muse sources said that before the expiry of the Feb. 28 deadline the regime had sent light infantry battalions to Shan State from other areas under the “One Nation, one Army” provisions of the 2008 Constitution.
As the biggest state of Burma and a potential conflict area, Shan State is home to three regional military commands. At least 133 battalions of government troops are based in the north and northeast.
The number of government troops based in Shan State could exceed the 70,000 now being deployed there, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese military analyst with close contacts to ethnic armed groups.
At the moment, he said, the policy of the UWSA and its close ally, the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) in Mongla, eastern Shan State, is to await a reply by the junta’s top negotiator, Lt-Gen Ye Myint, following meetings last week with the Wa and Mongla groups in Shan State. The Wa and Mongla leaders had explained to Ye Myint their stands on the BGF plan.
According to Burmese and Chinese experts on Burma’s ethnic issues, ethnic groups are resisting the BGF plan because they are concerned about their political and military roles in the absence of a political resolution.
Since November, 2009, the UWSA has been pressing for the Wa’s three strategic townships— two in northern and one in southern Shan State— to be included within the Wa self-administrative region.
Faced with the possibility of hostilities over the proposed BGF, the Burmese government is using other tactics to win over ethnic armed groups who oppose the plan.
On Thursday, the state-run-newspaper The New Light of Myanmar reported that in 2009-2010, the government destroyed 13,139 acres of poppy plantation. From Feb.21-27 alone, 251 acres were destroyed in Shan State, near areas controlled by ethnic forces, such as Tangyan.
Meanwhile, Lt-Gen Tha Aye, the Burmese army’s chief of the Bureau Special Operation-1, which oversees the north, northwest and central regional military commands, has been holding meetings in Kachin State, where the Kachin Independence Army is resisting the BGF plan. Tha Aye was accompanied by Maj-Gen Soe Win, the commander of the North Regional Military Command.
The possibility of conflict in the Sino-Burmese border region is being viewed with concern in Beijing, which has reportedly appealed to all sides to resolve their differences peacefully.
Experts say Beijing wants to see stability, development and national reconciliation in Burma. Chinese leaders, including Vice President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao explained their government's Burma policy at official meetings in 2009.
Fresh in Chinese minds is the Kokang crisis, when the Burmese army launched an offensive against the Kokang armed group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, causing thousands to flee to China. Chinese businessmen are still counting the cost of the offensive, and demands for compensation are mired in Burmese officialdom.
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