The Burmese military junta is reportedly considering the option of outlawing the country's largest ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and its political wing the United Wa State Party (UWSP), if they fail soon to agree to the regime's demand to join the planned Border Guard Force (BGF).The United Wa State Army is the strongest ethnic army in Burma.
Sources close to ethnic groups and Chinese officials who have contacts with Naypyidaw say Burmese military officials recently told their Chinese counterparts that they will try to hold another meeting with the UWSA leadership before March 10, in a bid to resolve the BGF issue.
If the UWSA continues to reject the BGF plan, the junta could declare the group and its political wing “illegal organizations,” the regime has reportedly told Beijing.
Burmese officials are said to have appealed to China to help persuade the Wa to accept the BGF plan.
If the Wa are officially outlawed the way is open to military action against the UWSA, which has an estimated 30,000 men under arms in Shan State.
In the face of rising tension along the Sino-Burmese border, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has alerted its troops to monitor the situation closely, according to official sources.
When Burmese government forces recently attacked the Kokang's Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in the border region, the Naypyidaw regime first of all declared the armed group an unlawful organization.
The offensive shook the Kokang region, disrupting business and sending thousands of refugees into China.
A new flood of refugees into China is to be expected if Burmese government forces launch an offensive against the UWSA. Experts say it would be no short confrontation, but a war prolonged by guerrilla tactics.
One important consideration in the current standoff is the approaching end of the dry season. The annual monsoons, when heavy rain makes military action especially difficult, are less than two months away.
UWSA officials were not available for comment on Friday.
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