BANGKOK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Military-ruled Myanmar wants ethnic groups to take part in this year's elections, the first in two decades, but most do not trust the regime and are refusing to join the political process.
WHY DOES THE JUNTA WANT ETHNIC GROUPS TO TAKE PART?
Despite holding a tight grip on power for almost 50 years, the military has never had control over rebellious ethnic groups along its borders with Thailand and China, many of which have their own governments and armies and have enjoyed a degree of unofficial autonomy for decades.
Their participation would help the junta claim the country was fully behind its elections, which critics say are a sham that will create a facade of civilian rule, with the top generals still pulling the strings. [ID:nSGE60O05D]
IS THERE A DEAL ON THE TABLE?
In April last year the government asked the groups to take part in the election process, offering a degree of self-rule if they disarm and instruct their militias to join a national Border Guard Force (BGF) under the control of the army.
However, most groups have refused, saying they have nothing to gain. For months, these groups have been expecting an offensive by government troops to force them to disarm and hand over control of their territory to Yangon.
HAVE ANY GROUPS JOINED THE PROCESS?
In August 2009, the Kokang Group, the weakest of the rebel armies in Shan State, was overpowered in a bloody offensive by the Myanmar army. About 800 fighters surrendered and joined the BGF, while an estimated 37,000 people flooded into neighbouring China, turning once thriving trade posts into ghost towns.
A local administration was immediately installed in the ethnic Chinese enclave. The junta said the group had "agreed" to take part in the election and would be granted autonomy later.
Of the 12 ethnic armies that agreed ceasefire deals with the junta 20 years ago, half have said they will join the BGF, according to the Thai-based Shan Herald News Agency. They are the smallest of the armies, with 150 to 5,000 fighters each.
The junta had given them until the end of February to disarm, according to activist groups with connections in Shan State.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF MORE FIGHTING?
Exiled activist groups say the Myanmar military has a sizable presence in Shan and Kachin states, but analysts and diplomats are split on whether it will launch offensives on other groups and risk a drawn-out conflict before or during the polls.
Another eruption of violence would further strain ties with China, its biggest economic ally, as a mass exodus of refugees into neighbouring countries, including Thailand, would create a humanitarian headache.
While the military is strong enough to defeat most of the armed groups, it is possible the ethnic armies could form an unprecedented alliance to defend their territories, increasing the likelihood of a protracted unrest that could cause delays in the construction of a massive oil pipeline to China. [ID:nTOE60D08W] [ID:nTOE60S06Z]
Myanmar might be hesitant about attacking the United Wa State Army (UWSA), a formidable fighting force once backed by China. The Wa's cultivation of opium has provided ample revenue to arm an estimated 36,000 troops. Wa-controlled areas have enjoyed de facto autonomy for decades and function like an independent country. The Wa are not likely to give that up.
HOW HAS IT AFFECTED RELATIONS WITH CHINA?
China wants a stable Myanmar, and the Yangon regime cannot afford to upset its powerful neighbour because of the economic and diplomatic assistance it provides through trade and protection in the international political arena.
Beijing has called on Myanmar to maintain stability along the border, urging dialogue with the ethnic groups and measures to protect Chinese citizens there. Myanmar has apologised for the Kokang attack and has given China assurances over border stability and the crude oil pipeline.
WILL THIS AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE ELECTION?
Yangon has yet to announce a date for the election, or say who can take part, and analysts say the delay is largely due to its inability to get the ethnic groups to join the process.
Common sense might suggest the regime would do all it could to avoid conflict and disruption during the election. However, Myanmar did hold its 2008 constitutional referendum just days after Cyclone Nargis swept through the country, killing an estimated 134,000 people and leaving 2.4 million homeless. (Editing by Alan Raybould)
Source :http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/SNAA-82K4H3?OpenDocument
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