News & Articles on Burma

Tuesday, 08 November, 2011
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Burma at the crossroads, one year after questionable polls
By Zin Linn Nov 08, 2011 9:50PM UTC

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Burma has passed one year time after the tainted 7 November 2010 elections held under the inglorious 2008 constitution made by previous junta. Military-dominated Thein Sein government has taken the office as a result of the 2010 polls condemned by the West as vote rigging parade.

As a face-saving plan, Burma's President Thein Sein government has been beginning to show up with a number of political stances which looks as if it is moving toward a visible change. For instance, key opposition leader and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi has been freed from detention a week after controversial polls on 7 November 2010. Then, the army-backed Burmese civilian government 's Labour Minister Aung Kyi had met with Burma's Nobel laureate for four times at Sein Lei Kan Tha state guest house.

On 19 August this year, President Thein Sein met Aung San Suu Kyi for the first in the highest level exchange of opinion between the Nobel laureate and the authorities since her release from house arrest in November 2010, after the arguable election.

Although Thein Sein's government seems to make softer political stance against its opponents in recent months, it fails to do more tangible improvement. For example, the release of all political prisoners still needed and peace negotiation with the KIO has failed. The KIO desires to solve the country's political problems based on the 1947 Panglong Agreement but the government is intent on negotiations based on the 2008 constitution.

Alternatively, releasing political prisoners and calling peace to armed ethnic groups would provide confirmation to the international community that government is truly bringing about political change and embracing authentic democratic values.

However, the most significant move of the Burmese government is the suspension of a $US3.6 billion mega-dam project financed by China in the northern Kachin State of the country.

On the other hand, Ojea Quintana said in his March report to the UN Human Rights Council, that a pattern of "gross and systematic" human rights violations in Burma had persisted over a period of several years and still continued. He suggested that a specific fact-finding UN Commission of Inquiry to be convened as soon as possible to scrutinize the series of international crimes.

Several exile political dissidents have been repeatedly urging not only the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon but also ASEAN leaders to show their pragmatic supporting towards Quintana's Commission of Inquiry proposal.

Due to such pressure, President Thein Sein has recently signed a law that amends three key areas of the Political Party Registration Law. Both houses of the Burmese Parliament had earlier endorsed these amendments. Many observers believe that the objective of amending the law is to pave a way for the National League for Democracy to reregister as a legal party.

If it happened, the NLD may take part in the forthcoming by-elections that would bring Suu Kyi's party back into the current parliamentary formation which would make the government healthier in authenticity at home and overseas.

But, there are lots of unmoved dissident groups inside and outside of the country. In keeping with those groups, the Burmese government keenly wishes for lifting of Western sanctions, financial assistance from monetary institutions and supporting of ASEAN Chairmanship in 2014. So, to fulfill the requirements in a short time, President Thein Sein has decided to give a political space to Suu Kyi.

Analysts say it is predictable Burma's rulers are aware of Suu Kyi's influence on the people as well as the international community and realize her involvement as a necessity to build a good relation with Western democracies.

To go over the main points, if President Thein Sein has candid political objective, firstly, he should release all political prisoners right away. Secondly, declare a nationwide ceasefire to show evidence for meaningful political dialogue with all dissident groups. Thirdly, the president should broadcast a general amnesty in quest of peace, stability and real progress of the multi-ethnic country.

According to some analysts, Suu Kyi may have her own idea of entering into the parliamentary politics. She wants to restore reliable law and order that guaranteed basic human rights for the citizens as a minimum. She would like to stop civil war in the respective ethnic areas.

Besides, she may wish to help promoting of country's education and health sectors as a priority. Her utmost task may be to debate and change the undemocratic clauses in the controversial constitution. http://asiancorrespondent.com/69139/burma-at-the-crossroads-one-year-after-questionable-polls/
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Top official: Than Shwe still holds the reins
Tuesday, 08 November 2011 14:52 S.H.A.N.

One year has gone and things are looking bright but no one should forget that the moon has its dark side too, according to sources to a number of top Naypyitaw officials, who claim Senior General Than Shwe who was supposed to have put himself out to pasture is still the real power especially when it comes to military affairs.

Senior General Than Shwe
"President Thein Sein wants the country to return to peace through negotiations," the source who, as a former businessman, is close to bigwigs in the new capital. "But he still have little say in military matters."

New military campaigns that were waged against the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), Shan State Army (SSA) North and Kachin Independence Army (KIA), groups that had concluded ceasefire pacts with Naypyitaw, were reportedly ordered by him. Before November 2010, the Burma Army had been fighting only with the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Shan State Army (SSA) South.

Even after new ceasefire pacts had been signed in September with the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), their requests for the Burma Army to withdraw to their pre 2009 lines went unheeded. (The Burma Army built up new bases around the two allies' areas after they turned down its April 2009 proposal to transform themselves into Burma Army-run Border Guard Forces.

The SSA North, during the 29 October peace talks, also reportedly requested the withdrawal of 4 new Burma Army bases around its Wanhai headquarters in Kehsi township. The Burmese delegates accordingly took note and promised a prompt response which never came. "All these show the final decision still rests with the Senior General," he said.

According Irrawaddy's Wai Moe, the Senior General who was said to have retired in March is still addressed as "Tat Choke" (Commander in Chief), while his successor Gen Min Aung Hlaing is being hailed as "Ka Choke" (Defense Chief).

A veteran newsman agreed. "Min Aung Hlaing is to Than Shwe what Saw Maung (the general who took power in 1988)," he said. "Outwardly Saw Maung was running the show. But it was U Ne Win who was directing things from behind the curtains."

A senior official also wrote to the effect in Bangkok Post, 27 September, that the "open minded officials" could not go too fast, if they did, they might end up in jail.

"Every silver lining has a cloud," the veteran newsman told SHAN. http://shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4180:top-official-than-shwe-still-holds-the-reins&catid=85:politics&Itemid=266
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Published Tuesday November 8, 2011
Analysis: New Myanmar's changes are no revolution

By GRANT PECK
? World AP

BANGKOK (AP) - Myanmar's elections last year seemed like just another self-serving maneuver by the country's generals to keep their thumbs on the scales of power. Then some surprising things began to happen.

The new government eased censorship, legalized labor unions, suspended an unpopular, China-backed dam project and began talks with Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her pro-democracy movement.

A revolution it isn't, however.

Political prisoners still languish in jails. The military still draws accusations of routine abuse against ethnic groups. And the country's long-suffering citizens remain highly skeptical of their government, believing its reforms could be aimed at lifting Western sanctions or avoiding an Arab Spring.

"The government is never sincere, and they will backtrack any time once their wishes are fulfilled," 45-year-old lawyer Myint Thein said in Rangon.

So far, most of the optimism appears to be outside the country as it emerges from a long reliance on China, with Myanmar and the West both keen to reconcile after decades of frosty relations.

U.S. envoy Derek Mitchell told reporters in Yangon on Friday that Myanmar's new government has taken a series of positive steps and that Washington would like to support its reforms.

"We would look to respond in kind," he said.

The international community's hopes were not high after Myanmar's carefully orchestrated Nov. 7, 2010 election. As expected, the polls brought to power a proxy party for the military, which has run the country since a 1962 coup.

But that perception has changed in recent months, said Asian Studies director David Steinberg of Georgetown University.

"You have a whole set of new things happening," Steinberg said. "I don't know how far and how fast they can go on these things. But they are moving and ... they are moving in a manner that we might not have predicted."

In one of the most closely watched aspects, however, the administration has so far fallen short: Large-scale clemencies for convicts have included less than 300 of an estimated 2,000 political prisoners, with many of the more prominent ones remaining behind bars.

"It is too early to know whether the government's change of tone and talk of reform is cynical window-dressing or evidence that significant change will come to the country," New York-based Human Rights Watch said in a statement.

In October, labor unions were legalized, along with the right to strike.

Last week, the government amended election regulations to encourage Suu Kyi's party to re-enter the political arena, after previously barring her from politics with rules that prompted her party to boycott last year's elections.

President Thein Sein reopened a long-stalled dialogue with Suu Kyi, inviting her to the presidential mansion, where she was greeted by his wife and grandchild. The warm reception was a stark contrast to the cold loathing she reportedly received from Senior Gen. Than Shwe, head of the former ruling junta.

Suu Kyi said she found Thein Sein genuine and sincere, with a desire for reform.

Suu Kyi, who spent most of the past two decades detained by the ruling generals, has appeared more generous in her assessment of the new government than many of the people she represents.

"It may be that she feels this is the time when she could have a longer range impact, maybe not short range, but in the long run a buildup of democratic forces," Steinberg said.

But Maung Zarni, a Myanmar exile who is a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics doubts Suu Kyi will be able to shake the military grip on institutional power.

"Maybe she is gambling here. But structurally the dice is in the military's favor," he said in an email interview.

Disappointment has been part of Myanmar politics since independence hero Gen. Aung San - Suu Kyi's father - was assassinated in 1947 by rivals on the eve of independence from Britain.

After a 1962 coup, Gen. Ne Win took power with a despotic socialism that plunged the vibrant economy into misery. A massive democracy uprising in 1988 was smashed by the army.

The junta that took over from Ne Win staged an election in 1990, only to refuse to hand over power when Suu Kyi's party won a landslide victory. Democracy activists went to prison, and the country into international isolation, with Washington leading the backlash against the junta by cutting U.S. aid and vetoing assistance from institutions such as the World Bank.

There the deadlock stood, more or less, for the next two decades.

Suu Kyi won the Nobel Peace Prize, and moved in and out of house arrest. The military accepted some foreign investment in oil and gas, splurged on much-needed infrastructure and cobbled uneasy cease-fires with restive minority groups along the country's borders.

In September 2007, a fuel price hike helped trigger widespread street protests of the so-called Saffron Rebellion. Once again, the military put down the uprising with violence.

By 2010, junta moved to hold an election under a constitution of its own careful crafting, ensuring it would hold veto power in any future, nominally civilian government.

Then, Thein Sein started his tenure on March 30.

The ex-general, a former prime minister in the previous junta, gave what Steinberg described as a "remarkable self-critical" inaugural speech, mentioning "good governance, clean government and the importance of the fourth estate."

His government unblocked several banned websites, allowed Internet access for Suu Kyi and dropped its routine broadsides against foreign broadcasting stations.

In addition to wooing Suu Kyi, Thein Sein offered peace talks with the country's ethnic minority groups, who were unhappy over a plan to disarm their militias.

Most stunningly, Thein Sein's government suspended a controversial China-built hydropower dam project in northern Kachin States on Sept. 30 because it was "against the will of the people." Ethnic activists and environmentalists had denounced the dam, and Suu Kyi's party also had taken up the potentially hot issue.

The move signaled an important foreign policy shift.

Isolated by the U.S. and other Western nations, Myanmar has leaned heavily on neighboring China as its key ally, but also has been wary of its huge neighbor.

"Burma is not a client state of China, never has been; the Burmese are far too nationalistic and they fear China and they have from the very beginning, but at the same time they know they need to work with China," Steinberg said.

An opening to the United States reduces dependence on Beijing, which is also a win for Washington, he said.

The government also may hope to ensure that reforms come from the top down, rather than risk a bottom-up revolution that spirals out of control as in the Middle East over the past year, Steinberg said.

"Nearly everyone is more willing to compromise now because, after 20 years, nearly everyone knows that the Myanmar people deserve so much better than what they have," said Thant Myint-U, a historian from Myanmar and grandson of the late U.N. Secretary General U Thant.

"The question should really be why has it taken so long to take the very simple and commonsense steps that we've seen over the past few months." http://www.omaha.com/article/20111108/AP15/311089952
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Suu Kyi's party mulls over rejoining Myanmar's political arena
Published on Nov 8, 2011

YANGON (AFP) - Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party said on Tuesday that more than 100 senior members would gather in Yangon next week to decide whether to rejoin the official political arena.

The National League for Democracy (NLD), delisted last year for boycotting a rare election, will consider re-registering as a political party on Nov 18, after Myanmar's president last week approved changes to related laws.

'More than 100 members of the central committee from around the country will attend,' NLD spokesman Han Thar Myint said after a meeting of the highest level members at Ms Suu Kyi's house in Yangon.

'We will ask them for their opinion on whether to register and then decide.' The NLD won a 1990 election but was never allowed to take office. It shunned last year's vote largely because of rules that would have forced it to expel imprisoned members. Ms Suu Kyi was under house arrest at the time. http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_731722.html
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Film highlights rape by Burma army
By KHIN MIN ZAW
Published: 8 November 2011

Two young women tell of being raped by Burmese soldiers in this still taken from 'Bringing Justice to Women of Burma' (WLB)

A film released this week purports to show strong evidence that rape of ethnic women by Burmese troops is endemic, and could be a deliberate policy of the country's military in its ongoing conflicts in the country's border regions.

The findings supplement various reports released this year that document cases of rape by soldiers, notably the surveys carried out by the Kachin Women's Association of Thailand (KWAT) which have found close to 40 incidents of sexual violence in the country's war-torn northern state since June.

The film, 'Bringing Justice to Women of Burma', which was produced by the umbrella group Women's League of Burma (WLB) and aired at a forum in Chiang Mai yesterday, claims that the Burmese government has ignored all UN resolutions calling for an end to violence against women.

Moreover, what qualifies as a war crime is carried out with complete impunity, and continues despite the transition to a nominally civilian government in Burma, it says.

One woman from northern Burma who was interviewed in the film describes in harrowing detail how she and others were raped by a soldier.

"I was so scared and I screamed. Then he threatened me, if you keep screaming I will punch your baby through your stomach. I could only cry while he brutally raped me. I could only cry. Not only one person, but one after another ... up to four."

Moon Nay Li, of KWAT, said that cases of rape "are becoming more and more frequent" as the military steps up its campaign to eliminate the opposition Kachin Independence Army.

A press release from the WLB urged the UN to carry out a commission of inquiry into war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Burmese military, something that critics of the government have long called for but which has yet to bear fruit.

The chances of any complaints being adequately dealt with by the newly-formed, government-appointed National Human Rights Commission are slim, said Nang Hseng Noung of the Shan Women's Action Network, meaning that it would not take the rape cases to that body. http://www.dvb.no/news/film-highlights-rape-by-burma-army/18599
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Indonesia: Burma Has Support for ASEAN Summit Bid
November 08, 2011

Indonesia's foreign minister said on Tuesday that ASEAN leaders had expressed tremendous support for Burma's bid to host the regional bloc's summit in 2014.

"The overwhelming sense that I obtained during the course of the May summit of ASEAN and the ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting in July... was positive," Marty Natalegawa told reporters.

He said it was especially significant that a statement at the bloc's last summit in July had called on members to "positively consider Myanmar's application" to host the summit.

Burma, which has a nominally civilian leadership dominated by former generals, wants to take the chair of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2014, when communist Laos was due to take the post.

Natalegawa, who met Burma's President Thein Sein and democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a visit last week to Burma, said he had been encouraged by recent political reforms there.

"If you asked me whether we would back Myanmar or not (at the Bali summit next week) I am afraid I could not give you a 'yes' or 'no' answer," Natalegawa said.

"But if I were asked how we feel about that in November compared to how we felt in July and how we felt in May, we feel more positive about it, because I have seen this trajectory of positive developments."

Hopes of political change in Burma have increased recently, with efforts by the new government to reach out to opponents including Suu Kyi and the suspension of construction of an unpopular Chinese-backed mega dam.

Burma has been a source of embarrassment for ASEAN's more democratic states, overshadowing other problem members such as communist Vietnam and Laos, which have significant human rights issues of their own.

As chair of ASEAN, Burma would be required to speak on behalf of the bloc and host scores of meetings including the East Asia Summit which includes the United States.

Every year the ASEAN conference is held in conjunction with the East Asia Summit, where next week Barack Obama will become the first US president to officially participate at the talks in Bali.

The United States and European Union have imposed broad sanctions against Burma for alleged human rights abuses.

Allowing Burma to host an ASEAN summit would mean that, to attend the EAS summit, a US president would have to travel to a country whose government Washington strongly opposes.

ASEAN also includes Brunei, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Agence France-Presse http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/home/indonesia-burma-has-support-for-asean-summit-bid/477085
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S Africa probes Burma diplomat's history
By FRANCIS WADE
Published: 8 November 2011

South Africa's official opposition has called on the country's president to investigate the shady past of Burmese ambassador Myint Naung, following accusations in media that the former army general was complicit in gross human rights abuses in his home country.

The Democratic Alliance party has argued for a revocation of the diplomat's accreditation following an investigation by the Johannesburg-based Mail & Guardian Online that uncovered evidence that Myint Naung may have played a key role in a number military offensives in Karen state, which have historically carried huge costs for civilians.

Research carried out by the Karen Human Rights Group (KHRG) suggests that Brigadier General Myint Naung was heading the Military Operation Command (MOC) #4 during a protracted December 2007 offensive in Karen state, where his troops were responsible for multiple attacks on displaced villagers and settlements. The same group has documented at least one extra-judicial killing of a civilian by a solider under MOC#4 command during Myint Naung's likely tenure as commander.

He is also believed to have been among a party of three commanders that ordered the attack on the Ngwekyaryan monastery in Rangoon on 27 September 2007, in which dozens of monks were beaten by troops before being loaded onto trucks and driven away.

The specifics of his record in the army are hard to come by: very few documents on Burma's high-ranking military and government officials are ever made public, but prior to his appointment as ambassador to South Africa in March this year, Burmese state media had referred to him as a brigadier general.

Between 2008 and 2010 he also served as principal of the Army Combat Forces School at Fort Bayinnaung in Karen state, where troops are trained in counter-insurgency techniques for use against Burma's multiple ethnic armed forces.

The Democratic Alliance's shadow minister for international relations, Kenneth Mubu, told the newspaper that President Jacob Zuma should order Myint Naung to be removed from his post.

"In terms of the Vienna Convention, the president has the power to refuse access to members of diplomatic missions should their credentials not stand up to scrutiny. Accordingly, he should now use his powers and revoke Naung's diplomatic accreditation."

Given the presence of hundreds of former junta members in Burma's new government, the revelations may prompt other countries to closely scrutinise the background of Burmese diplomats.

Consternation still surrounds the appointment of Ye Myint Aung asBurma's ambassador to the UN: during his tenure as Consul-General to Hong Kong, he wrote in a letter to other heads of mission, and copying in international newspapers, that Burma's ethnic Rohingya were "ugly as ogres".

"You will see in the photos that their complexion is 'dark brown'. The complexion of Myanmar people is fair and soft, good looking as well," he wrote, sparking widespread uproar.

South Africa has had mixed relations with the Burmese government in recent years. During its stint as a temporary UN Security Council member in 2007, it refused to sanction a resolution condemning rights abuses by the junta, which, ironically, coincided with the Ngwekyaryan monastery attack.

But ministers in the ruling African National Congress have criticised Burma's 2008 constitution, which came into force this year but which some compared with South Africa's 1983 constitution, which looked to legitimise apartheid rule through only token participation of ethnic groups.http://www.dvb.no/news/s-africa-probes-burma-diplomat%e2%80%99s-history/18607
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Chinese-funded hydropower project sparks anger in Burma
By Andrew Higgins, Tuesday, November 8, 9:49 AM

NAYPYIDAW, Burma --- After five years of cozy cooperation with Burma's ruling generals, China Power Investment Corp. got a shock in September when it sent a senior executive to Naypyidaw, this destitute Southeast Asian nation's showcase capital, a Pharaonic sprawl of empty eight-lane highways and cavernous government buildings.

Armed with a slick PowerPoint presentation and promises of $20 billion in investment, Li Guanghua pitched "an excellent opportunity," a mammoth, Chinese-funded hydropower project in Burma's far north.

Then came the questions: What about the risk of earthquakes, ecological damage and all the people whose homes would be flooded? Is it true that most of the electricity would go to China?

Two weeks later, Burma, also known as Myanmar, scrapped the cornerstone of the project. President Thein Sein, a former general who took office in March, announced that he had to "respect the people's will" and halt the $3.6 billion dam project at Myitsone, the biggest of seven planned by China Power Investment, or CPI.

As the world's biggest consumer of energy, China has hunted far and wide in recent years for sources of power --- and of profit --- for state-owned corporate behemoths such as CPI. The result is a web of deals with often-repressive regimes, from oil-rich African autocracies such as Sudan and Angola to river-rich Burma.

But coziness with despots can also backfire.

Amid a dramatic, though still fitful, opening in Burma after decades of harsh repression, public anger has swamped China's hydropower plan. The deluge threatens not only hundreds of millions of dollars already spent but also China's intimate ties to what had been a reliably authoritarian partner, its only East Asian ally other than North Korea.

Beijing still has big interests in Burma, including a multibillion-dollar oil and natural gas pipeline that is under construction. But a partnership forged with scant heed to public opinion has been badly jolted by a barrage of no-longer-taboo questions.

CPI "thought that making an agreement with the regime is good enough. They don't realize that the circumstances have changed," said Ko Tar, a Burmese writer and anti-dam activist who traveled to Myitsone early this year. He has since rallied opposition to a project that he says shows China is "only concerned with its own energy needs, not with Burma's ecological needs."

China's overseas ventures

China has plenty of rivers itself and is the world's largest producer of hydroelectric power, which accounts for about 16 percent of its electricity and 7 percent of its total energy consumption. It plans to increase hydro-generating capacity by nearly two-thirds over the next five years.

But under pressure from environmentalists at home and crimped by new legislation, China's dam-builders have in recent years also looked to rivers abroad. They are constructing about 300 dams overseas.

Most of these will not help China meet its energy needs: They are too far away, in places such as Ethiopia and Sudan. But Chinese-built dams in Laos and especially Burma will pump electricity into China's power grid. The dams under construction by CPI on Burma's Irrawaddy River and its tributaries would, if completed, be capable of generating roughly as much electricity as China's gigantic Three Gorges Dam. Ninety percent of that energy would go to China.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-funded-hydropower-project-sparks-anger-in-burma/2011/10/17/gIQAGYFfxM_story.html
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Burmese change aplenty but it's only skin deep
by: Bertil Lintner
From: The Australian
October 17, 2011 12:00AM

IF most Western pundits are to be believed, fundamental change is taking place in Burma.

After holding a seriously flawed referendum in May 2008 on a new constitution that gives the country's military controlling powers, and holding an election last November condemned by the West as rigged, Burma's new government has stunned the world by taking steps towards what appears to be more openness.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been freed from house arrest; she and new President Thein Sein have been meeting; strict censorship rules have been relaxed; and on Tuesday the release of thousands of prisoners began.

More importantly, Burma suspended a $US3.6 billion mega-dam joint project with China in the north of the country.

According to the view of the same Western observers, recent developments may also reflect a power struggle between "hardliners" and "reform-minded liberals" within the government and the military that controls it.
Free trial

But reality is far more complicated. Firstly, the new constitution and elections were not intended to change the basic power structure but to institutionalise it.

Once the new parliament and other institutions were in place, and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party had secured an absolute parliamentary majority and formed a new, seemingly legitimate, government, concessions were expected.

Suu Kyi's release had been announced before the election, and there had been talks about prisoner releases and an amnesty for Burmese exiles.

The concessions went much further than that when the military discovered that Suu Kyi, despite her long house arrest, was as popular as ever. Nor had her party, the National League for Democracy, disappeared despite being dissolved in May last year.

At the same time, a powerful, popular movement was growing against the controversial dam project at Myitsone in the northern Kachin State. The dam would have flooded an area bigger than Singapore and 90 per cent of the electricity was to be exported to China.

And it would have seriously harmed the Irrawaddy River, the nation's economic as well as cultural artery. There was a potential for an upheaval that could have threatened the unity of the armed forces. The government had to act to prevent the public and elements of the military joining forces.

China has been Burma's closest economic, political and military ally since the pro-democracy uprising of 1988. But it has been an uneasy alliance, as many Burmese army officers have not forgotten that China for decades supported the insurgent Communist Party of Burma.

Even today, China maintains cordial relations with the United Wa State Army, a successor to the CPB, which in 1989 made a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government.

Chinese duplicity was bad enough; robbing the country of its natural resources was seen as even worse. By suspending the controversial dam project, Thein Sein has taken the wind out of the sails of this movement and weathered the storm many were waiting for - at the same time as the suspension, not cancellation, of Myitsone leaves open the door for negotiations with China.

Thein Sein has skilfully played "the China Card" with the West.

In Washington, on September 29, Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin met Derek Mitchell, the newly appointed US co-ordinator on Burma; Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; and Michael Posner, a specialist in human rights.

The next day, the government decided to suspend the dam until 2015. At the same time, ongoing talks with Suu Kyi are meant to "tame" the NLD and persuade it to "return to the legal fold", as the government always terms it.

Some Rangoon-based sources even suggest the aim of the government could be to form a USDP-NLD coalition after the next, 2015 election. Consequently, the US is showing signs of softening its hard stance against Burma.

The US position will be eroded totally once the NLD is re-registered and all political prisoners are released. Then, sanctions are likely to be eased if not completely lifted. The EU will give in even earlier.

Apart from trying to neutralise the NLD, releasing prisoners and inviting emigres to return, the government is also attempting to revitalise the economy. Economic progress is seen as vital for regime survival, and to have US and EU sanctions lifted will serve that purpose.

In order to be "re-admitted" into the global community, and break its diplomatic and economic isolation from the West, Thein Sein's government is said to have set three other high-profile goals which would improve its international reputation: to host the Southeast Asian Games, which are scheduled to be held in Naypyidaw, Burma's new capital, in 2013; to assume the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014; and the 2015 election.

It is likely to succeed in these endeavours, and the economy will most probably benefit as well from more interaction with and acceptance by the West.

Some economic liberalisation could also follow, but major political reforms are unlikely. The new constitution has enough safeguards to protect the military and its ultimate grip on power.

Despite the new honeymoon with the West, Burma is unlikely to shake off its dependence on China. And recent changes are unlikely to alter the country's fundamental power structure with the military effectively in command. The sad truth is that there is no "step-by-step" process in motion that would lead to real democracy in Burma.

Bertil Lintner is a Thailand-based correspondent for the Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet and author of several books on Burma http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/burmese-change-aplenty-but-its-only-skin-deep/story-e6frg6ux-1226167961805?sv=696af5d5410f7eae329a3be669e105dd
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7 November 2011 Last updated at 01:03 GMT
Viewpoint: Has a year of civilian rule changed Burma?
By Marie Lall South Asia analyst


One year after the controversial Burmese elections the debate about whether there have been any significant changes inside the country rages on louder than ever.

The debate, as usual, is conducted largely outside of Burma, and today the battle lines are drawn between old guard activists who maintain everything Nay Pyi Taw does is window dressing, and the slowly increasing numbers of those giving credit to the new government.

Inside the country the changes are perceived as gradual but real, and everyone is hoping the government will continue on the reform path.

So what are the main milestones?

One can really only look at the period after the handover of the military's State Peace and Development Council to the new government on the last day of the first parliamentary sitting at the end of March 2011. Prior to that, the military was still in charge.

The new structure has been tested by what has seemed like an internal struggle between more reform-minded and more hard-line ministers. Yet despite this internal contest, quite a few things have been engendered:


Just before the second sitting of parliament there was direct engagement of the government with Aung San Suu Kyi. First there was a dialogue with Labour Minister Aung Kyi and subsequently her visit to Nay Pyi Taw, with her meeting the president.

Since that time she has said herself that she believes changes are happening. The question remains if her party, the NLD, will re-register and take part in the political processes of the country.

It is likely to have been discussed but details of the negotiations are not in the public domain.
No-strings release

Another big milestone was the release of at least 220 and possible as many as 270 political prisoners as part of the 6,000+ amnesty in September this year. The amnesty resulted in some controversy on the numbers of prisoners of conscience who had not been included.

It emerged that rather than the universally accepted figure of 2,000 political prisoners, the real figure was more likely to be around 700 (even the NLD holds a list with that number).

Female prisoners walk out of the Insein central prison on 12 October Hundreds of prisoners have been released under an amnesty

This means that close to 30% of political prisoners have been freed, and for the first time without any conditions attached to their release. This is a big step for the government and one for which the reformers in Nay Pyi Taw probably had to battle hard.

A few days later President Thein Sein suspended the construction of the Myitsone Dam, despite vocal protests by China.

While other dams are still planned, and the Chinese presence in the northern ethnic areas remains unchallenged, the halting of the construction in light of the geographic and ecological dangers shows that the thinking of the government goes beyond receiving Chinese money and political support no matter what the cost to the Burmese population.

The president followed this announcement with a trip to Burma's other giant neighbour, India, rebalancing at least symbolically its foreign policy priorities in the region.

India has to date been much less involved than China, and prior to this it was understood that northern Burma was simply becoming a Chinese satellite.
New labour laws

Most importantly for the people of Burma, yet hardly mentioned abroad, have been the legislative changes.

The passing of new labour laws allowing the formation of labour unions is a big step and according to the ILO at least the draft they saw was up to international standards. As Burma's industries develop, workers will now have rights they have not had since 1962.

Many other issues have been debated in parliament since August.

They include education in ethnic languages for ethnic states, the legality of private education and the peace process with ethnic insurgent groups.

Not all motions are passed, but they are raised and debated, again something quite new. Internet controls have been relaxed and press censorship is now far less strict.
Why the change?

Burma is well set on a reform path and many ask why. In fact many, especially in the West, will say that it was tough policies such as sanctions which brought these changes about.

In India we are also hearing those who say their policies brought about the changes - here it was not sanctions, but quiet constructive engagement which set Burma off on the right path.

The fact is that neither Western sanctions nor Asian constructive engagement should be credited for what we are witnessing today.

The new government needs to be given credit for re-assessing the country's position in light of three phenomena: Burma wants the Asean chair in 2014, needs the Asean free trade area in 2015 for its economy to thrive, and the current government wants to win the 2015 elections.

Overarching these objectives though is the major interest of assuring the security and stability of the state which is now thought best achieved through reform rather than repression.
Where now?

Despite all these quiet successes and new policies, issues remain.

Fighting in ethnic areas, especially in Kachin state, continues. However more recently various groups such as the Wa and the Mongla have taken up Nay Pyi Taw's new structure for negotiation - the peace committees at state level.

There have also been talks between other Shan groups and the New Mon State Party (NMSP). The issue of the Border Guard Force, the major stumbling block in the previous negotiation, seems to have been put on the back burner.

Hopefully in the near future the new structure for negotiation will bear fruit across the country, including Kachin State.

So where does Burma go from here?

Burma is not about to turn into a Western-style democracy, but Nay Pyi Taw has set out on a strong path for reform which will benefit the Burmese people.

The first priority for the government is now to set the economy right, both with regard to exchange rates to boost trade as well as with regard to employment and wages so as to improve the living standards of ordinary Burmese.

The government is well aware of the economic problems the country is facing. If the government is allowed to continue on its present path change will be gradual but life-changing for those living inside the country.

Marie Lall is a Reader in Education Policy and South Asian Studies, Institute of Education, University of London.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15560414
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KIO's power supply lines to Myitkyina destroyed by Burmese Army
Category: News
Published on Monday, 07 November 2011 20:41
Written by KNG

KIO's Buga Company had supplied power to Myitkyina, the captital of Kachin State since July, 2006.
People in Kachin state capital Myitkyina in northern Burma are going without electricity for a week now because power supply lines to the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) territory was destroyed by the Burmese Army, said KIO officials.

The power supply cables were destroyed deliberately by artillery fire in Ga Ra Yang village on Nov. 1 at about 4 p.m. local time by Burmese Army troops during their military offensive against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) under the KIO, said KIO officials.

La Gun, an eyewitness and People's Army commander under the KIA in Ga Ra Yang battle zone told Kachin News Group, "They (Burmese troops) intentionally damaged power poles between Lung Zep Kawng and Ga Ra Yang with artillery fire. They pretended as though the power poles were destroyed, while fighting the KIA, when actually it was deliberate".

The government has branded KIO a terrorist group, added La Gun.

On June 12, the KIO ordered the complete closure of its liaison office in Myitkyina and the Buga Co. Ltd. for reasons of security, but the power supply was unaffected to Myitkyina and Waingmaw.

Operated by KIO's Buga Co. Ltd., the Mali power plant has been supplying 2.4 MW of electricity daily to Myitkyina and Wiangmaw towns since July, 2006, according to a KIO report.

When the plant is fully operational, it can produce 10.5 MW of electricity, said the KIO report.

The Buga Company has not been able to repair the damaged electric poles yet because fighting continues. http://kachinnews.com/photo-news/2138-kios-power-supply-lines-to-myitkyina-destroyed-by-burmese-army.html
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Gambling dens galore
Tuesday, 08 November 2011 18:40 Hseng Khio Fah

Despite the new civilianized government's announcement in April which is to eliminate all gambling games in the country, over a hundred gambling dens are being witnessed along with the Hot Air Balloon Competition festival in Taunggyi, capital of Shan State, local sources reported.

There are several types of gambling dens like dominoes, Markingloi, Gonggin, Hilo, Thone Gaung Gyin (three animal dice) ,Mahjong, Lay Gaung Gyin (four animal dice), and 36 animal- lottery.

Gambling syndicates were reportedly told to pay Kyat 2 million ($ 2,667) each to Shan State Finance and Revenue as taxes. The gambling contracts were reportedly given to the former ceasefire group Pa-O National Organization (PNO), according to a vendor. But SHAN could not obtain independent confirmation on the statement.

The gambling dens are opening at the same place of the Hot Air Balloons Festival, at Sawsi Quarters, south of Taunggyi. The event started on 3 November and will last until 11 November.

The Taunggyi Balloon festival is a unique festival in Burma and is held only once a year after the end of the Buddhist Lent in November.

"Thousands of people are coming to enjoy the festival including foreigners. So it is not good to have such gambling which is destroying the live and habit of the people at this place. It will be a bad image for us. And the number of crimes has been increasing," said an elder from Taunggyi.

Members of Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) are having a discussion to submit the case to President Thein Sein to enforce the law against gambling, according to an SNDP source.

In April, President had formed a committee to eliminate gambling and prostitution. http://shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4183:gambling-dens-galore&

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