A man breaks the lock to open the Yangon Division office of the National League for Democracy. Myanmar's military government has allowed the party of detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi to reopen regional branch offices that have been closed since May 2003.YANGON—Myanmar's military is moving large numbers of soldiers to border areas near China and Thailand in anticipation of possible conflicts with ethnic rebels in those areas before elections this year, according to diplomats, intelligence experts and residents who are tracking the activities.
Details about the buildup, including the total number of troops involved, are unclear. Myanmar is one of the world's most secretive countries, and its government rarely speaks publicly about activities it deems sensitive, especially military movements. Attempts to reach the Myanmar government were unsuccessful.
But analysts and dissidents say the deployments—which are believed to include tens of thousands of soldiers—are designed to ratchet up pressure on Myanmar's numerous armed ethnic groups before the regime holds elections later this year. Several of the groups—including the Wa, an ethnic minority with a private army that includes as many as 20,000 soldiers—have yet to indicate whether they will participate and continue to resist any move that would reduce their autonomy.
Myanmar's military is trying to "turn up the pressure" on rebels through the troop deployments, said Bertil Lintner, a Thailand-based military expert who has followed the issue. If tensions continue to build, he said, "I think there will be military action." The generals "could decide they have to solve" the border problem now because of the election, said one Yangon diplomat.
Some analysts believe Myanmar authorities will stop short of launching a full assault to avoid condemnation from neighbors at a time when the regime is trying to boost its international image by holding elections. Thai officials couldn't be reached Thursday. Previously, Chinese authorities have expressed concern about Myanmar border-area unrest.
The buildup comes at a time when the junta is trying to assert tighter control over how its election—the first since 1990—is conducted. On Thursday, it released the latest in a series of new rules for the vote, including provisions that officially invalidated the 1990 election, which was easily won by Myanmar's main opposition party but ignored by the regime.
The government also appointed a former high-ranking army officer to head the commission overseeing the vote, the Associated Press reported. Myanmar has yet to announce a date for the election.
Reining in the more than a dozen ethnic rebel groups within Myanmar's borders remains a priority for the regime. The junta has struggled for decades to subdue the groups, which control large areas along Myanmar's borders, and it has repeatedly cited that struggle as one of the main reasons to justify its harsh rule over the country, also known as Burma.
To ensure the rebels are pacified in time for the vote, regime officials have ordered ethnic groups to convert their soldiers into "border guards" under the leadership of the Myanmar army, sharply limiting their autonomy. In return, the groups would be allowed to organize political groups and participate in the vote. Several groups, including the Wa, have so far declined.
In August, the Myanmar military targeted a relatively weak ethnic group, the Kokang, in an offensive that drove some 30,000 or more refugees into China and left more than 30 people dead. Most of the refugees returned when it was clear the Kokang had been overwhelmed.
A spokeswoman for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs last year expressed "deep concern" over the Kokang episode, a rare public rebuke from its northern neighbor.
A conflict with the Wa or other large ethnic groups would likely be worse, analysts say. The Wa are believed to be far better-armed and better-organized, thanks in part to revenue from drug trafficking, according to U.S. government and international antinarcotics officials. Intelligence experts say ethnic groups have been building up their arms stockpiles, meaning they could present a bigger challenge if the military doesn't act now.
According to Irrawaddy, a Myanmar-focused news organization based in Thailand, the government is moving as many as 70,000 troops into Shan state, a part of northeastern Myanmar occupied in part by Wa and other ethnic minorities. It cited unnamed sources close to military officials working in Myanmar border areas.
Residents in some of the areas have reported seeing large numbers of troops on the move, including in a city southeast of Mandalay in central Myanmar with military bases nearby and roads heading east into Wa areas. One resident, a former schoolteacher who lives near the main highway in the region, said trucks of soldiers began moving out at night in late February and continued to leave military installations each night for several days. After that, he said, a new round of convoys began carrying rations eastward.
He said he believed the trucks were heading to Kengtung, a town in far eastern Myanmar that's close to areas populated by the Wa. It was impossible to independently verify his account.
Residents in areas further north around Muse, a border crossing with China, report a similar buildup since late February.
"More security forces are visible along the Sino-Burmese trade route" from central Myanmar to Muse, said a businessman who imports computers from China. Other businessmen and brokers have said that getting imported items from China into Myanmar cities has become more difficult because of increased military checkpoints.
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