Ruling party foresees no landslide victory, but winning still likely

The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) would not win a landslide victory like in the 2010 election in light of fierce rivalry, said a party member.

Upper House MP Hla Swe told the media that the fate of political parties was not important in the 2015 general elections. It is more important (for voters) to choose those who really could serve the public interests, he added.

"Unlike in the 2010 election, I don't think our party will win a landslide victory. But fierce rivalry is exciting. It is not good that one single party always wins," said Hla Swe.

Yet, he did not rule out the chance that the party would win enough votes to support its presidential candidate.

He said that the party's central committee would convene a meeting on May 29 or May 30, to choose its presidential candidate.

"We will have a preliminary meeting on May 28 but the main meeting will be on May 29 and 30. The time has come to make a choice. It is not good if it is left late."

The USDP is the largest and financially strongest party in the country.

It provided Ks2.5 million to each candidate in the previous election and this could increase to Ks10 million this time, he added.

Based on hearsay, he said, older parliamentarians would be asked to retire while younger ones would be urged to run for another term.

The USDP will choose younger members to stand and give priority to those who are acceptable to local people and capable of serving regional interests.

Hla Swe said he had decided not to run for re-election on grounds of age.

He said in Myanmar presidential contenders were about 70 years old while other state leaders were about 50.

The ruling party is led by former members of a military junta, evolved from an organisation that democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi once compared to a Nazi militia, and took office through electoral fraud.

In the election likely to be held in November, Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is expected to thump the USDP at the polls.

Scores of smaller parties will also compete in what could be the former Burma’s first free and fair general election in 25 years and a milestone in the Southeast Asian nation’s unfinished journey from dictatorship to democracy.

"I have a strong belief the USDP will win the election," senior party adviser Aung Thaung told Reuters in a rare interview at the USDP’s monumental headquarters in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw.

Analysts said that the USDP has the incumbent’s advantage, with hundreds of legislators and cosy ties with Myanmar’s government and bureaucracy. It is also wealthy and well-organised, with a nationwide network of offices and paid staff.

This formidable structure was set up with state funds under the military that ruled Myanmar for nearly half a century.

The party began life in 1993 as the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), a mass movement notorious for its anti-democratic activities. Senior General Than Shwe, then Myanmar’s dictator, was its patron.

In 1997, Suu Kyi called the USDA "a gang of thugs" and said its efforts to crush the NLD and other democrats "resemble those of the Nazi Brown shirts". Six years later, a USDA-linked mob attacked her motorcade in northern Myanmar, killing at least four supporters.

In 2010, with the election approaching, the USDA morphed into the USDP. The party is no longer state-funded, but muchelse remains unchanged, including its motto: "Morale,Discipline, Solidarity, Unity".

Than Shwe, now in retirement, is still a patron, and the party’s leaders are mostly former generals and junta stalwarts. And while many people fear or despise Myanmar’s powerful military, a USDP manifesto calls it "a great patriotic nation-loving force".

Senior adviser Aung Thaung, himself an ex-colonel, embodies his party’s shady past. In October the US Treasury placed sanctions on him for "actively attempting to undermine recent economic and political reforms" and "perpetuating violence, oppression, and corruption".

Aung Thaung denied these accusations, but seemed to regardthe US censure as a badge of honour. "I became famous because of these sanctions," he said, smiling.

In November, at least 75 parties will battle for 498 seats in Myanmar’s upper and lower houses. The remaining 166 seats are reserved for unelected military delegates.

Aung Thaung’s confidence in his party’s chances isn’t entirely misplaced.

In a survey of Myanmar public opinion last year by the International Republican Institute, the USDP scored lower than the NLD on the issue of supporting democratic reforms, but higher on the economy and national security.

Renaud Egreteau, a political scientist who is researching Myanmar’s parliamentary affairs, said the USDP will win millions of votes in rural areas because it is often seen as best-placed to meet local needs - for example, building a new road or renovating a monastery.

"In Myanmar, as in many other Southeast Asian societies, politics is local - and very personal," said Egreteau.

The USDP has also drawn lessons from recent elections in other countries, said Aung Thaung. He compared his party’s message to that of British Prime Minister David Cameron, who won re-election on May 7.

"We have the same belief in making greater countries, in national unity," he said. 

Origion

Comments