BANGKOK |
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Following years of careful planning, Myanmar's military rulers will hand over power to a new government after a November 7 election but few expect it will bring about any real change to the status quo.WHY IS MYANMAR HOLDING ELECTIONS?
Western sanctions and decades of corruption and economic mismanagement have crippled the resource-rich country, which was the world's top rice exporter under British colonial rule before the military seized power in 1962.
Although trade with China and other Asian countries is picking up, the regime is a pariah in the West because of its poor human rights record. Military totalitarianism has long placed Myanmar's regional allies in an uncomfortable position and its leaders probably recognize that some civilian participation in politics is necessary in order to appear legitimate.
Analysts say Myanmar wants to open up and attract investment. The generals know they must give up power -- nominally at least -- but they want to ensure they and their cronies have control of politics, the judiciary and the economy long into the future.
HOW WILL A GOVERNMENT BE FORMED?
The polls will elect representatives for a two-chamber parliament and 14 regional assemblies. Lawmakers will elect a president and two vice-presidents, each for five-year terms.
The president will appoint ministers, who can be anyone who meets qualification criteria. The president will also choose a chief justice and attorney general, and parliament cannot reject those appointments unless the candidates are not qualified.
WHAT ROLE WILL THE MILITARY HAVE?
A very significant one. A quarter of the seats in all legislative chambers have been reserved for serving military officers appointed by the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services. Recently retired soldiers and junta proxies representing powerful pro-military parties will probably win most of the other seats.
The army-dominated parliament is expected to nominate and elect a member or protégé of the current junta, possibly supremo Than Shwe himself, to become the all-powerful president, who must include three serving generals as ministers.
As the military's top man, the commander in chief can assume full sovereign power in a state of emergency if he believes there is a threat of "disintegration of the union" . In fact, the military has never said it will withdraw from politics. The first page of the constitution states as one of its objectives that the military is "able to participate in the national political leadership role of the state."
HOW INCLUSIVE WILL THE POLLS BE?
Some of the biggest names in Burmese politics, like Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, remain in detention and would-be parties not aligned with the military have been rejected. Those allowed to take part have had little room for maneuver.
Pro-democracy parties complain they have been intimidated and given barely any time to prepare, recruit candidates or raise funds. Canvassing and campaign activities have been restricted and scrutinized, and candidates not aligned with military-backed parties say voters are often too scared to talk to them.
Several ethnic political groups had their requests to form parties rejected. Some former rebel leaders applied to run as independents but that was denied.
The junta has scrapped polls in hundreds of villages in ethnic areas where it says free and fair polls will not be possible. These could be places where rebels might try to prevent balloting, although ethnic parties believe these are constituencies in which the junta fears its proxies will lose.
WILL THE POLLS BE FREE AND FAIR, AS PROMISED?
It is abundantly clear Myanmar's transition to army-dominated democracy has been carefully crafted to consolidate military power and sideline opponents. It probably won't be necessary to rig the election result itself, unless the turnout is very low. That's probably why the reclusive generals seem so comfortable with their "free and fair" mantra.
WILL THE WEST LIFT SANCTIONS?
Because of the restrictive election laws and the junta's refusal to free political prisoners, this is unlikely. An election that brings reforms without a transition to genuine democracy would sharpen the debate over whether sanctions should be removed and there will be plenty of investors keen to take advantage of Myanmar's untapped potential.
(Editing by Alan Raybould and Andrew Marshall)
Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A019U20101101
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