In this Aug. 20 photo, members of the Union Solidarity and Development Party hold flags of the party as they attend a ceremony to unveil the signboard of the party in Mandalay. (Photo: AP)With Burma's election now less than two months away and parties having filed their candidates lists, political observers expect opposition democratic front parties to come in a distant third behind the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National Unity Party (NUP).
Chan Tun, a veteran politician based in Rangoon, said; “Only the USDP and NUP will compete in the upcoming election because of the weakness of the rest of the democratic front. No change will emerge if these two parties win.”
The USDP is backed by the regime and was founded by Prime Minister Thein Sein and other senior junta officials. The NUP, previously called the Burmese Socialist Programme Party, was established by the late dictator Ne Win. It changed its name to the NUP in 1988 and won 10 seats in the 1990 general election.
Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Thursday, Thein Tin Aung, the general-secretary of the Union Democratic Party (UDP), said: “Using an analogy from football, the USDP and NUP will have to fight for first and second place, and the NUP has little chance to win first.”
Thein Tin Aung predicted that opposition parties will win at most 150 seats in parliament because some nominations will be rejected by the Election Commission and some constituencies will overlap.
For example, in their Rangoon constituencies, 161 National Democratic Front (NDF) candidates filed to compete in the election, 50 Democratic Party (Myanmar) candidates filed, and the two parties overlap in nearly 20 constituencies.
“We don’t know how many constituencies we will win, and with the limitations of time there will be some overlapping constituencies.” Thein Tin Aung said. “So we cannot dream of being able to legislate following the election.”
However, Khin Maung Swe, a founding leader of the NDF, said: “If the public votes for all democratic front parties, which have 276 candidates running for the people's and nationalities parliament, I don’t worry. In fact, the candidate lists are just a number.”
The numbers, however, appear insurmountable for the democratic front parties.
In the November election, parties will compete for a total of 1,163 seats—330 in the people's parliament (lower house), 168 in the nationalities parliament (upper house) and 665 in the state and regional parliaments.
The regime-backed USDP filed a list of 1,100 candidates, covering almost all consituencies, and the NUP filed a list of 980 candidates, consisting of 294 candidates for the people's parliament, 149 candidate for the nationalities parliament and 537 candidates for the state and regional parliaments, according to a party source.
In contrast, the combined lists of 20 smaller political parties, including the NDF and ethnic political parties, showed approximately 690 candidates.
Meanwhile, the NUP and USDP are reportedly criticizing each other, and an NUP organizer has been arrested in Sagaing Division, according to a local resident.
Former army colonel Win Naung, a candidate for the USDP who will compete for the nationalities parliament in a Rangoon constituency made up of six townships, has allegedly been critical of the NUP and told voters in his constituency not to vote for the competing party, according to USDP sources.
“Win Naing said the NUP caused the country to suffer and the party is not good. He also said that USDP members have persuaded voters not to cast votes for the NUP,” said an official in Rangoon's Bahan Township.
Han Shwe, the spokesman for the NUP, refused to comment on the war of words between the two parties. “Although some slander us we will not respond. It depends on the public and the public has much experience with elections. Now they understand our party,” he said.
At an Armed Forces Day speech in Naypyidaw on March 27, Snr-Gen Than Shwe warned political parties to behave well while campaigning for the November election, saying that the armed forces can take part in politics “whenever the need arises.”
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