In it latest report on Burma, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an influential London-based think tank, said it sees little chance that the country's coming election will be free, fair or inclusive.
The Nov. 7 election will be held with “the objective of legitimizing the military’s hold on power,” but won't fundamentally alter the balance of power in Burma, the report said.
Commenting on the formation of the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), led by Prime Minister Thein Sein, ahead of the election, the EIU said: “The move appears to be part of the generals’ overarching aim of cementing a role for the military in government through 'civilianized' military leaders and pro-military political parties.”
The report also noted that while a number of small opposition groups have decided to contest the election, they face numerous restrictions on their campaigning activities and some have complained of official intimidation.
Although the military will remain the dominant force after the election, “underlying pressures—not least those stemming from economic hardship—could build and eventually prompt sporadic shows of public defiance,” according to the report.
The junta’s effort to exert full control over ethnic cease-fire groups by forcing them to become border guard forces under Burmese command could also result in fresh crises, the report said, noting that ethnic cease-fire groups see their armies as a guarantee of a degree of autonomy.
According to the EIU, a post-election reshuffle of positions within the military hierarchy, including the selection of the president and three vice presidents, will test the junta supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s ability to balance competing interests and maintain the unity of the military.
The report also said that the junta’s relations with its regional allies would sour and that US efforts to engage with the regime would end if allegations of its nuclear weapons ambitions and ties with North Korea are substantiated.
Although Burma’s economy performance will improve in 2010-11 because of investment in the energy and petroleum sectors from Thailand, China and India, the domestic economy will remain weak, the EIU said, adding that consumer price inflation will accelerate in 2010-11 after slowing sharply last year as a result of falling global fuel and food prices.
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