A soldier from the United Wa State Army seen in Sept 2009 patrolling the streets on Nandeng in the Wa region of Burma. AP Photo.
The junta's plan is to put all armed cease-fire groups under the Tatamdaw (Burma’s armed forces) before Thursday, the latest junta deadline.
According to sources, the Wa leadership recently met to discuss the BGF and the future of the UWSA. They decided once again to reject the BGF plan.This decision followed previous, unsuccessful attempts by the Wa leadership to negotiate with the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
“The Wa chairman Bao Youxiang sent two letters to the SPDC, compromising over the BGF. However, the SPDC rejected both letters—and the Wa leaders decided not to give up any more ground,” said Saengjuen Sarawin, an editor of Shan Herald Agency for News monitoring ethnic affairs.
Sarawin said some Wa leaders believed that, although they could not agree to the entire BGF plan, they had to give an alternative position rather than simply saying “no.”
“This kind of thinking came not only from the Wa but also from those beyond the border,” he added, referring China's involvement in negotiations.
But the junta wants ethnic groups to accept the BGF plan without changes by April 22, and will not hold further talks with the Wa regarding the plan.
With the BGF acceptance deadline now only two days away, it is a tense time for all the ethnic cease-fire groups who have refused to join the BGF since it was first proposed in April 2009, as well as for the junta.
Although these ethnic groups have vowed to resolve the issue peacefully and politically, they are preparing for the worst.
Sources said that both the Wa and its ally, the National Democratic Alliance Army based in Mongla, eastern Shan State, began before the beginning of April to mobilize their administration staff for potential conflict.
Now the ethnic groups have put troops on alert to defend their territory if the SPDC decides to take military action.
At the same time, the junta appears to be preparing for an offensive if the armed cease-fire groups do not meet the Thursday deadline.
According to local people in Thazi, a town en route to southern Shan State, dozens of military vehicles carrying infantry troops were driving into the Shan mountains, possible to confront the Wa troops based in southern Shan State, near the Thai-Burmese border.
A rumor circulating among government troops is that an offensive against ethnic armed forces may take place on April 28, according to military sources in Rangoon.
The junta has also tightened trade routes to ethnic cease-fire areas in Shan State and Kachin State, and government agencies have launched psychological warfare attempts among business and local communities along the Burma-China border.
“The junta agents in Muse are saying that their troops would launch a five day long military offensive against the Wa in late April if they failed to join the BGF,” said Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese military observer based on the Burma-China border.
“However, it seems just a threat to the Wa and other ethnic groups. Making a new war is not so easy for the junta. It could backfire both on itself and its relationship with China.”
April 17 marked the 21st anniversary of the formation of the UWSA.
The UWSA was formed after the Wa split from the Communist Party of Burma, leading to the junta’s cease-fire agreements with former communist fighters, including the UWSA.
For the past 20 years, the Wa has held a big celebration in Panghsang, its headquarters near the Burma-China border.
At the 20th anniversary celebration on April 17, 2009, Bao Youxiang, a UWSA commander and the chairman of its political wing, the United Wa State Party, vowed before thousands of supporters to build a more solid and united Wa State.
But with the Wa and its allies living under the looming BGF deadline and potential armed conflict with the junta, the UWSA leadership did not celebrate its anniversary last weekend.
“This year the Wa would have liked to celebrate forming the United Wa State Army. However, they were busy preparing their troops for conflict while cooperating closely with their allies,” said Sarawin.
In an indication of what may be in store, last weekend government troops exchanged gunfire with Kachin Independence Army (KIA) guerrillas near the jade mine of Hpacan in Kachin State.
Kachin sources said the incident, which lasted only a few minutes, was sparked when government troops crossed into KIA territory.
The KIA, like the UWSA and some other ethnic cease-fire groups, has not yet joined the BGF.
Source :http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18281&page=1
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